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Wasser_kap3.1.13

3.1.13 Veränderung regionaler Niederschlagsextreme (Dieter Kasang)

3.1.13 Change of regional extremes (Dieter Kasang & Frank Kaspar)

Change of regional extremes: During the last decade floods and droughts with significant impacts have been observed in Europe and other parts of the world. Thus, the question arises whether these events are caused by a manmade global warming. A lot of datasets show increasing frequencies of extreme precipitation events, but the lack of reliable long-term data makes it difficult to identify clear trends. Trends in the frequency of droughts are even less distinguishable. Due to physical reasons more extreme events should be expected in a warmer climate. However, the spatial pattern is influenced by the complex dynamics of atmosphere and ocean. Sophisticated climate models lead to conclusions which are in agreement with the theoretical considerations.rises whether these events are caused by a manmade global warming. A lot of datasets show increasing frequencies of extreme precipitation events, but the lack of reliable long-term data makes it difficult to identify clear trends. Trends in the frequency of droughts are even less distinguishable. Due to physical reasons more extreme events should be expected in a warmer climate. However, the spatial pattern is influenced by the complex dynamics of atmosphere and ocean. Sophisticated climate models lead to conclusions which are in agreement with the theoretical considerations.