The emerging conflict of using Nile water for irrigation purposes, especially between Egypt and Ethiopia, due to the disturbance of the reliability of the arrival of the Monsoon season as triggered by European/Asian brown cloud:
80% of Nile water stems from Ethiopia, i.e. about 100 billion m³/year ‘fob’ Sudan, but up to now nearly zero % is used in Ethiopia for irrigation purposes. Ethiopia is blessed with about 1.500 mm/year precipitation, rain fed agriculture is feasible and consequently common. But this feasibility depends crucially upon the regularity of the occurrence of the Monsoon.
Downwards, in semi- and fully arid Sudan and Egypt, no further influx takes place, but, at the other hand, evaporation is very high. Agriculture in Sudan as well as in Egypt totally depends on the utilisation of Nile water, which is calculated at 86 billion m³/year ‘fob’ Khartoum. Especially Egypt is actively following a strategy of increasing the area cultivated by irrigation.
Each of the three countries involved face an increase of their population to be fed, with Ethiopia on top, expecting a tripling of its population up to 2050. It is this regional background, against which the interference of developments initiated far away, in Southeast Asia, is to be anticipated: I.e. the interruption of the regularity of the Monsoon’s occurrence due to Asian Brown Cloud.
But irrespective of the naming, there is probably also an European influence, which has to be further assessed. It is expected, that this development, via an atmospheric interference, will undermine the feasibility of the rain fed option for Ethiopia’s agricultural development and will consequently lead to an increase of the tensions between Ethiopia and its downstream neighbours. The Nile Basin Initiative will face an unexpected challenge.
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